The Operating Space: Gray Zone and Low Intensity Conflict
Low Intensity Conflict & Gray Zone Activities
Low Intensity Conflict (LIC) and gray zone activities describe forms of competition that operate below the threshold of full-scale war. LIC generally involves prolonged, lower-level conflict involving state or non-state actors, including insurgencies, proxy forces, and limited military operations. Gray zone activities rely more heavily on ambiguity and coercion, using tools such as cyber operations, information campaigns, economic pressure, proxies, and maritime coercion to pursue strategic objectives while avoiding a direct military confrontation.
The distinction matters because these activities can produce strategic effects without looking like conventional warfare. An insurgency may gradually weaken government authority through violence, political pressure, and influence, while a gray zone campaign may target critical infrastructure, supply chains, public confidence, or political institutions. NATO describes gray zone and hybrid activity as operating below the threshold of conventional military confrontation and notes the use of cyber, information, economic, and other instruments of power.
For businesses and organizations, the key issue is recognizing the indicators before they become a larger security problem. Increasing cyber activity, unexplained infrastructure disruptions, maritime coercion, proxy activity, coordinated information campaigns, economic pressure, or activity around critical infrastructure can indicate a changing security environment. Understanding the difference between LIC and gray zone activity helps organizations assess not only what is happening, but how competition below the threshold of war can affect personnel, operations, supply chains, and markets.
SOURCES
U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff — Joint Publication 3-24, Countering Irregular Threats, 2024. Joint Publication 3-24
NATO — Western alliances in times of power politics, 2023. NATO Review
NATO — Russia’s hybrid war against the West, 2024. NATO Review
NATO DEEP Portal — Policing the Grey Zone, 2026. NATO DEEP Portal